By Lawrence Williams
First one US Fed leader says one thing regarding the possibility of a second interest rate hike this year and then another comes up with a different take on the U.S.'s overall economic position and gold and the dollar move up or down depending on what position is being taken.
We have commented before that why the gold price moves to the extent it does on the potential timing of what is likely to be a minimal interest rate increase of perhaps 25 basis points is somewhat of a mystery. (See: Why does gold react so sharply to poss. Fed interest rate rise schedule?) Real inflation is growing at a higher rate than official figures suggest and even if there is a small rate increase, the U.S. will effectively remain in negative rate territory, which is generally positive for gold, but this seems to be being totally disregarded.
Regarding a possible Fed rate increase, possible dates, if the Fed will raise them this year, are September, November and December. We can probably rule out November as the Fed meeting is scheduled only a week ahead of the US Presidential election and the Fed wouldn't want to be seen as doing anything which might be seen as impacting the result for whatever reason.
That leaves next month - probably too early, given the tone of the last FOMC minutes - and a more likely date of December, a full year after the last rate increase assuming economic indicators don't turn down, which they well could.